BIS Shrapnel reveals secret of Blues' Origin success
Announcement posted by Oxford Economics 08 Jul 2014
New South Wales’ 2014 series win could be the start of a long period of dominance
Tuesday, July 8, 2014 – On the eve of the third State of Origin match of 2014, economic analyst and forecaster BIS Shrapnel has revealed the secret weapon behind New South Wales' thrilling series win – their first in eight years.
And it has less to do with Hayne, Hodkinson, the Morris twins, Gallen or Bird, and more to do with investment cycles.
Writing in its new Infrastructure and Mining blog, BIS Shrapnel point out an uncanny correlation between civil construction activity in each state and the outcome of each State of Origin series since 1996.
In the 10 series played between 1996 and 2005 – a period when New South Wales engineering construction activity eclipsed that of Queensland – the Maroons only won two series, two were drawn and six were won by the Blues.
However, this changed sharply from 2006, when an infrastructure and resources investment boom in the Sunshine State coincided with an eight-year uninterrupted reign of success for the Maroons.
"It is a stark correlation, and one that we have been noting persistently to our Queensland and New South Wales clients over the past few years," says Senior Manager of BIS Shrapnel's Infrastructure and Mining Unit, Adrian Hart.
In troubling news for Queensland, the 2014 series win for New South Wales could auger a new cycle of Blues domination.
"The construction momentum has definitely shifted in favour of New South Wales," says Hart. "Driven by new transport infrastructure projects across roads and railways, and with the prospect of airport development at Badgerys Creek, New South Wales civil construction activity is set to exceed that of Queensland by a substantial margin – suggesting more Blues series victories ahead."
"By contrast, Queensland's prospects have weakened as the mining investment boom subsides. Both on and off the field, the past eight years has been an incredibly impressive feat – probably a once in a lifetime experience. Can Queensland's ageing champions turn it around and buck the cycle? We will have to wait and see."
BIS Shrapnel’s new Infrastructure and Mining Blog
BIS Shrapnel’s new Infrastructure and Mining blog will provide a variety of perspectives and analysis on Australia’s infrastructure and mining markets.
Based on BIS Shrapnel’s extensive range of research and forecasts across construction, maintenance and mining, the Infrastructure and Mining blog will be a regular source of news and comment for organisations with links to these important markets.
The BIS Shrapnel Infrastructure and Mining blog can be found here:
http://www.bis.com.au/infrastructure_and_mining_blog.html
About BIS Shrapnel
BIS Shrapnel is Australia's leading provider of industry research, analysis and forecasting services. BIS Shrapnel helps clients better understand the markets in which they operate, through reliable and detailed market data, analysis of developments and drivers and thoroughly researched forecasts.
BIS Shrapnel compiles accurate, clearly explained and detailed information on industry sectors, markets and industries in which their clients operate. BIS Shrapnel provides market size and segmentation data, market shares, consumer attitudes and supplier reputation information, and regularly conducts both business-to-business and consumer research.
Over the company’s 50-year history, BIS Shrapnel has built up a strong level of expertise and unique methodologies for forecasting.
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And it has less to do with Hayne, Hodkinson, the Morris twins, Gallen or Bird, and more to do with investment cycles.
Writing in its new Infrastructure and Mining blog, BIS Shrapnel point out an uncanny correlation between civil construction activity in each state and the outcome of each State of Origin series since 1996.
In the 10 series played between 1996 and 2005 – a period when New South Wales engineering construction activity eclipsed that of Queensland – the Maroons only won two series, two were drawn and six were won by the Blues.
However, this changed sharply from 2006, when an infrastructure and resources investment boom in the Sunshine State coincided with an eight-year uninterrupted reign of success for the Maroons.
"It is a stark correlation, and one that we have been noting persistently to our Queensland and New South Wales clients over the past few years," says Senior Manager of BIS Shrapnel's Infrastructure and Mining Unit, Adrian Hart.
In troubling news for Queensland, the 2014 series win for New South Wales could auger a new cycle of Blues domination.
"The construction momentum has definitely shifted in favour of New South Wales," says Hart. "Driven by new transport infrastructure projects across roads and railways, and with the prospect of airport development at Badgerys Creek, New South Wales civil construction activity is set to exceed that of Queensland by a substantial margin – suggesting more Blues series victories ahead."
"By contrast, Queensland's prospects have weakened as the mining investment boom subsides. Both on and off the field, the past eight years has been an incredibly impressive feat – probably a once in a lifetime experience. Can Queensland's ageing champions turn it around and buck the cycle? We will have to wait and see."
BIS Shrapnel’s new Infrastructure and Mining Blog
BIS Shrapnel’s new Infrastructure and Mining blog will provide a variety of perspectives and analysis on Australia’s infrastructure and mining markets.
Based on BIS Shrapnel’s extensive range of research and forecasts across construction, maintenance and mining, the Infrastructure and Mining blog will be a regular source of news and comment for organisations with links to these important markets.
The BIS Shrapnel Infrastructure and Mining blog can be found here:
http://www.bis.com.au/infrastructure_and_mining_blog.html
About BIS Shrapnel
BIS Shrapnel is Australia's leading provider of industry research, analysis and forecasting services. BIS Shrapnel helps clients better understand the markets in which they operate, through reliable and detailed market data, analysis of developments and drivers and thoroughly researched forecasts.
BIS Shrapnel compiles accurate, clearly explained and detailed information on industry sectors, markets and industries in which their clients operate. BIS Shrapnel provides market size and segmentation data, market shares, consumer attitudes and supplier reputation information, and regularly conducts both business-to-business and consumer research.
Over the company’s 50-year history, BIS Shrapnel has built up a strong level of expertise and unique methodologies for forecasting.
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