Australian employers expect modest workforce gains: four in five employers intend to maintain current staff heading into Quarter 4
Announcement posted by WE Buchan 08 Sep 2015
AUSTRALIA (8 September 2015): According to the most recent Manpower Employment Outlook Survey released today, four in five employers aren’t considering any changes to their current workforces heading into the coming quarter. Of the more than 1,500 employers surveyed across Australia, a record breaking 80% indicated they would make no change to their current headcount. However, the fourth-quarter research indicates there will be some opportunities for job seekers in the months ahead, with 13% of employers intending to hire, and only 6% indicating they will be decreasing their headcount,
The resulting national Net Employment Outlook (NEO)[1] of +7% is up one percentage point quarter-on-quarter, and down three percentage points on the same time last year.
Lincoln Crawley, Managing Director, ManpowerGroup Australia and New Zealand said the modest movements are reflective of the current state of the economy, but the lower levels of employers reducing their headcount is a positive sign.
“Before this year the most significant ‘no change’ figure we had seen was in 2004, when we saw 74% of employers enter a hiring holding pattern. The increase to 80% is a significant indicator that more employers are satisfied that their present headcounts are adequate to meet current demand. That’s good news for those content with their current jobs, and for those looking for a job or looking to change jobs, keep in mind that the fourth-quarter forecast does point to some opportunities in the months ahead. There are employers who intend to hire, but the job search may take a little longer than it has in the past.”
“While hiring plans are weaker than historic norms, the fourth-quarter results are not unexpected when one considers the effect that current commodity prices and shifting economies across Asia, specifically in China, are likely to have on job growth throughout Australia,” added Mr. Crawley.
Across the country there are a few bright spots, employers in the Australian Capital Territory saw a moderate six percentage point increase in hiring intention to record an NEO of +10%. Employers in Western Australia reported the same increase of six percentage points, resulting in an NEO of +0%.
"The market in WA remains volatile. During the peak of the mining boom we saw the population increase by nearly 3.5%, this creates demand across all sectors, which isn’t sustainable during the wind down.
"Rather than job creation in the state, we are seeing people exit the WA market, which is creating vacancies, particularly in the less specialised roles that are in more constant demand. There is still demand for project based work in WA, and the current market shows signs of having hit its lowest point. We anticipate it will plateau here before looking to recover.”
Employers in Queensland and Victoria both recorded NEOs of +8%, stable quarter-on-quarter, while employers in Tasmania reported a modest increase of three percentage points to +9%.
"Queensland, being a diversified economy, is faring better than both Western Australia and the Northern Territory as the resources sector continues to contract. It is also being buoyed by infrastructure activity, particularly as preparation for the Commonwealth Games kicks off."
South Australia and the Northern Territory were the only regions where employers reported a decrease in hiring intention, down one and three percentage points, to record NEOs of +3% and -2%, respectively. Employers in New South Wales recorded a moderate increase of four percentage points, to record an NEO of +10%.
"New South Wales continues to be buoyed by domestic and commercial development activity, and continued government investment in infrastructure," Mr Crawley said.
Positive forecasts are reported across all of Australia’s industry sectors. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate employers continue to offer job seekers the most promising prospects recording a NEO of +20%, up one percentage point quarter-on-quarter. Services remained unchanged quarter-on-quarter, with employers recording a NEO of +12%, the second strongest across the sectors.
Employers in Public Administration were the only to report a decrease in hiring intention, down two percentage points to record an Outlook of +1%. Employers in Manufacturing and Wholesale Trade & Retail Trade both recorded increases of four percentage points quarter-on-quarter to record NEOs of +5% and +7% respectively. Transport & Utilities has also see a modest increase in hiring intention of two percentage points, to an Outlook of +7%.
"Industries that are impacted by the exchange rate are experiencing an uptick, we are seeing a growth in confidence across these sectors, particularly those that manufacture for export.
“The increase in hiring intention in Manufacturing can be attributed to a combination of the falling dollar and people moving out of the sector. Individuals are taking the opportunity to focus on career planning, and reskilling in other areas to ensure their future employment prospects.
"The Small Business Package, specifically the accelerated asset deprecation, appears to have boosted confidence in the Wholesale Trade & Retail Trade sector. This initiative, coupled with the weakening dollar, is driving small business to spend the funds on local products rather than import, which is concurrently boosting the Transport & Utilities sector," said Mr Crawley.
Across organisation sizes Large employers were the only segment to report a decrease in hiring intention of two percentage points quarter-on-quarter, recording an Outlook of +8%. Employers across Micro and Small organisations reported modest increases on last quarter of one percentage point to record NEOs of +2% and +7% respectively. Medium organisation employers reported a moderate increase of six percentage points quarter-on-quarter to record an Outlook of +12%.
-ENDS-
Tag: @ManpowerGroupAU @ManpowerAU #MEOS #Employment
Table 1. Net Employment Outlook Comparison by Region
| Q4 2015 | Quarter-on-Quarter Change | Year-on-Year Change | |
| NATIONAL | +7% | ↑ (+1%) | ↓ (-3%) |
| SA | +3% | ↓ (-1%) | - (+/-0%) |
| QLD | +8% | - (+/-0%) | ↓ (-4%) |
| TAS | +9% | ↑ (+3%) | ↑ (+1%) |
| VIC | +8% | - (+/-0%) | ↓ (-5%) |
| NT | -2% | ↓ (-3%) | ↓ (-20%) |
| WA | +0% | ↑ (+6%) | ↓ (-7%) |
| NSW | +10% | ↑ (+4%) | ↓ (-2%) |
| ACT | +10% | ↑ (+6%) | ↑ (+3%) |
Table 2. Net Employment Outlook Comparison by Sector
| Q4 2015 | Quarter-on-Quarter Change | Year-on-Year Change | |
| Finance, Insurance & Real Estate | +20% | ↑ (+1%) | ↑ (+2%) |
| Manufacturing | +5% | ↑ (+4%) | ↓ (-1%) |
| Mining & Construction | +1% | ↑ (+2%) | ↓ (-6%) |
| Public Administration | +1% | ↓ (-2%) | ↓ (-3%) |
| Services | +12% | - (+/-0%) | ↓ (-4%) |
| Transportation & Utilities | +7% | ↑ (+2%) | ↓ (-1%) |
| Wholesale Trade & Retail Trade | +7% | ↑ (+4%) | ↓ (-2%) |
Table 3. Net Employment Outlook Comparison by Organisation size
| Q4 2015 | Quarter-on-Quarter Change | Year-on-Year Change | |
| Micro (<10) | +2% | ↑ (+1%) | ↓ (-5%) |
| Small (10-49) | +7% | ↑ (+1%) | ↓ (-7%) |
| Medium (50-249) | +12% | ↑ (+6%) | ↑ (+2%) |
| Large (>250) | +8% | ↓ (-2%) | ↑ (+0%) |
Table 4. APAC Q3 2015 results
| Country | Q4 2015 NEO | Quarter-on Quarter change | Year-on-Year change |
| AUSTRALIA | +7% | ↓ (+1%) | ↓ (-3%) |
| CHINA | +5% | ↑ (-8%) | ↓ (-4%) |
| HONG KONG | +15% | ↓ (-1%) | - (+/-0%) |
| INDIA | +41% | ↑ (+4%) | ↓ (-4%) |
| JAPAN | +23% | ↑ (+1%) | ↑ (+4%) |
| NEW ZEALAND | +12% | - (+/-0%) | ↓ (-15%) |
| SINGAPORE | +12% | ↓ (-1%) | ↓ (-4%) |
| TAIWAN | +36% | ↓ (-4%) | ↓ (-5%) |
About ManpowerGroup
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