Alex Jamieson: Defence is the trade of the decade
Announcement posted by Invigorate PR 10 Mar 2026
Leading Australian financial strategist Alex Jamieson, founder of Jamieson Private Wealth, has declared the global defence sector the 'trade of the decade' as geopolitical tension, artificial intelligence and cyber warfare reshape national security priorities and investment markets.
In his new special report, Defence Horizon, Jamieson argues the world has entered a structural rearmament cycle, with defence spending and defence innovation moving into a new era dominated by intelligence, autonomy and digital infrastructure.
"Defence is no longer just about tanks, ships and aircraft," Jamieson said.
"It has become a digital ecosystem powered by artificial intelligence, drones, robotics and cyber security. This transformation will drive investment, innovation and economic growth for decades."
A $2.2 trillion global spending surge
Jamieson points to a step-change in global defence outlays, with spending reaching approximately US$2.2 trillion in 2024, roughly 2.5 per cent of global GDP, as governments redirect budgets from manpower and steel toward high-technology systems that deliver precision, speed and scalability.
He said the largest budgets continue to dominate global procurement, but what matters most to investors is where new spending is accelerating, particularly in high-technology categories such as military aircraft, space systems and missile defence, which recorded double-digit growth in 2025.
"This is a pivot toward the modern defence economy," Jamieson said.
"The centre of gravity is shifting from conventional hardware to high-technology systems."
From steel to software
According to Jamieson, traditional market classifications often miss how dramatically defence has changed. He said modern defence is now a converged sector where software, data and autonomy are becoming as strategically important as physical platforms.
He said the fastest growth areas are increasingly concentrated in drones and autonomous systems, military AI and digital command networks, cyber security and electronic defence, and robotics and support systems that bridge defence manufacturing with industrial automation.
"What we're witnessing is the transformation from platforms of steel to systems of intelligence," Jamieson said.
"In modern conflict, decision-making speed and network resilience can matter more than firepower."
Military AI is exploding
Jamieson said defence AI is one of the clearest indicators of this shift, with global military AI spending forecast to rise from US$27 billion in 2024 to US$44 billion by 2030.
He said this growth is being driven by the rapid expansion of AI-enabled command-and-control systems, sensor fusion, real-time targeting and autonomous platforms, with drones and robotics increasingly outpacing legacy shipbuilding and armoured vehicle programs in funding and innovation.
"This is one of the fastest growth trajectories across all industrial sectors," Jamieson said.
"It's not speculative, it is already underway."
Australia's Ghost Shark signals the new era
Jamieson said the rise of autonomy is no longer experimental, pointing to Australia's $1.1 billion Ghost Shark program as evidence that robotics can deliver faster, more cost-effective deterrence capabilities while traditional programs take years or decades to come online.
He said similar initiatives across Europe, Israel and Asia signal that defence modernisation is now focused on scalable, networked systems that can be deployed rapidly and upgraded continuously.
Markets don't collapse under conflict, they adapt
While conflict creates volatility, Jamieson said history shows markets tend to stabilise and recover quickly once investors reprice risk and anticipate the surge in fiscal expansion and industrial production that typically follows war events.
He said long-run data suggests post-war periods have historically delivered strong equity performance, with all-equity portfolios averaging 18.6 per cent returns over the following 12 months compared with 7.3 per cent for bond-heavy portfolios, while short-term war shocks have often been modest and temporary.
"Markets fall on fear, recover on production and expand on innovation," Jamieson said.
"Defence spending accelerates the very industries now driving global growth."
A deeper structural cycle may be forming
Jamieson's research also draws on long-cycle geopolitical frameworks that argue major global restructurings occur when technological progress outpaces the ability of institutions and governance to adapt.
He said advances in AI, cyber capabilities and energy technologies are moving faster than global systems can stabilise, and that if historical cadence continues, the next major restructuring phase may emerge between 2030 and 2045.
"This isn't just a news cycle," Jamieson said.
"It's a systemic shift and defence is becoming the industrial spine of the next decade."
Defence is no longer a sector, it's an ecosystem
Jamieson said the modern defence economy now sits at the intersection of national security, advanced manufacturing, artificial intelligence, cyber resilience and space infrastructure, with increasing crossover between civilian technology and military capability.
He said that as the boundaries between commercial innovation and defence applications continue to dissolve, defence will remain one of the most important structural themes for investors this decade.
"Defence is the trade of the decade because it reflects the reality of the world we're moving into," Jamieson said.
"A world where intelligence, autonomy and cyber resilience define power."