L-NP (56.5%) WITH STRONG LEAD OVER ALP (43.5%)

The latest face-to-face Morgan Poll shows the L-NP support at 56.5% (virtually unchanged from the last face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted October 29/30, 2011) compared to the ALP 43.5% (virtually unchanged) on a Two-Party preferred basis. The L-NP primary vote is 47% (up 0.5%) well ahead of the ALP 34.5% (up 0.5%). However, the Two-Party preferred result is up 5% from a separate telephone Morgan Poll conducted after the Melbourne Cup on the nights of November 2/3, 2011.

Support for the minor parties shows the Greens 11.5% (down 2%) and Others/ Independents 7% (up 1%) according to the latest face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted over the last two weekends, November 5/6 & 12/13, 2011.

If a Federal election were held today the L-NP would win easily according to today’s Morgan Poll.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is at 105.5 with 45.5% (down 1%) — saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction,’ while 40% (up 1.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction.’

The latest weekly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating conducted last weekend, November 12/13, 2011, and released today is 112.1 (down 4.3pts from November 5/6, 2011) and down 4.7pts for the period of this survey.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s face-to-face Morgan Poll shows the L-NP (56.5%, virtually unchanged from the last face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted on October 29/30, 2011) with a large lead over the ALP (43.5%, virtually unchanged) on a Two-Party preferred basis. However the L-NP vote is up 5% from a separate telephone Morgan Poll on November 2/3, 2011.

“The telephone Morgan Poll conducted during Melbourne Cup week took place after Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s successful hosting of the CHOGM meeting in Perth, with the Queen in attendance, and as Gillard jetted off to Europe to take part in the G-20 meeting with other world leaders. It was also immediately after Gillard got Qantas planes back in the sky after a 48hr grounding over that weekend. It is not surprising the Government received a boost in support that week in lieu of these events.

“Since then the latest Roy Morgan unemployment figures have been released showing a spike in unemployment to a near decade high of 8.6% (up 0.9%) with over 1 million Australians unemployed for the first time since January 2002 and today’s weekly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence shows a significant drop in Consumer Confidence to 112.1 — down 4.3pts, and down 4.7pts over the period of this survey.

“For the real poll watchers the Morgan Poll is the only major polling organisation that provides a Two-Party preferred table showing both the Two-Party preferred calculated based on how people say they will give their preferences; and also allocated by how preferences were voted at the last Federal election. Although most electors ‘vote the card’ it is still interesting to measure how people say they will give their preferences — it is an indicator of soft support for the major parties.

“Today’s face-to-face Morgan Poll shows that based on preference flows at the last Federal election the two —party preferred vote is L-NP (53.5%) cf. ALP (46.5%) - a similar result as recorded by other major polling companies in recent weeks.”

Electors were asked: “If a Federal Election for the House of Representatives were held today — which party would receive your first preference?”

This face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends — November 5/6 & 12/13, 2011 with an Australia-wide cross-section of Australians aged 14+ including 1,788 electors, of all electors surveyed, 5% did not name a party.

*Telephone Morgan Polls are conducted using the same methodologies used by other major telephone polls — Nielsen, Newspoll, Galaxy. In analysing telephone Morgan Poll results, it is worth noting that telephone polls are good at capturing the response to current events and have typically been biased towards the L-NP, obtain a higher figure for Minor parties and Independents and more ‘responsive’ to current events.

For further information:

Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093

During the period:

RBA cuts interest rates 0.25% to 4.5%
The RBA has cut Australian interest rates for the first time in 2 1/2 years. The RBA cut interest rates 0.25% to 4.5%, the sixth straight Melbourne Cup Day the RBA has adjusted Australian interest rates — four increases and two decreases.

Qantas grounding leaves more than 70,000 passengers stranded worldwide
An ongoing dispute between several Qantas Unions and management came to a head last weekend as Qantas Management led by CEO Alan Joyce grounded the entire Qantas fleet on Saturday morning leaving tens of thousands of Qantas passengers stranded at airports all around the world. The move has been seen as an escalation in the ongoing battle between Qantas Unions and Qantas Management over employment conditions at the airline.

Prime Minister Gillard reacts to Qantas grounding by intervening and demanding arbitration
The Federal Government asked the industrial “umpire” Fair Work Australia to intervene in the dispute between Qantas Management and Qantas Unions last Sunday after all Qantas flights had been grounded worldwide. Fair Work Australia ordered an end to the dispute and asked that Qantas resume flying and enter arbitration with the unions.

The Queen convenes CHOGM in Perth with other members of the Commonwealth
The Queen opened the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Perth last weekend with a call for the more than 50 world leaders gathered there, the largest ever gathering of world leaders Australia has ever hosted, to respond effectively to today’s crises and challenges with vibrancy and a sense of renewal.

Greek & Italian Prime Ministers step down
The Greek and Italian Prime Ministers have been forced out of office as a result of the deepening sovereign debt crisis in Europe. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou and Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi were both forced out of office to be replaced by technocrats Lucas Papademos in Greece and Mario Monti in Italy as tough austerity demanded by Brussels in lieu of further bailout money made the positions of the former Prime Ministers untenable. Despite the changes, both countries face uphill battles to avoid default.

Melbourne Cup won by French raider for second year in a row
The Melbourne Cup has been won by a French trained horse for the second year in a row after the Mikel Delzangles trained stayer Dunaden beat out English outsider Red Cadeaux by a flared nostril in the closest ever finish to Australia richest horse race. German import Lucas Cranach couldn’t match the two leaders with a gallant third, and defending champion Americain produced a barnstorming finish to grab fourth — just missing out on the placings by a short head.

Black Caviar extends winning streak to 16
Super mare Black Caviar has extended its winning streak to 16 on the last day of the Melbourne Cup Carnival with an easy win in the 1,200m Patinack Farm Classic. Black Caviar’s 16th win takes it closer to claiming an Australasian horse race winning streak record.