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Churn Forecasts: Telstra, Vodafone (Highest), Vs Primus, VirginMobile (lowest)

Announcement posted by APT Strategies 20 Nov 2001

APT Strategies has released the Australian Telecommunications Performance Rankings and Churn Forecasts Report, in which 4,000 responses were received from Australians mobile phone subscribers.


Churn Telco Demanding Churn
Exposure Customers Performance Exposure
Ranking Ranking Ranking Score
(A) (B) ( B/A)
1 RSL 1 9 9.00
2 Telstra 2 6 3.00
3 Dingo Blue 4 5 1.25
4 Vodafone 6 7 1.17
5 AAPT 3 3 1.00
6 Optus 8 8 1.00
7 Orange 7 4 0.57
8 Primus 9 2 0.22
9 Virgin Mobile 5 1 0.20

The report explains that the three telecommunications carriers most likely to be subjected to churn are Telstra, Dingo Blue and Vodafone. Orange, Primus, and Virgin Mobile, however, are likely to be able to avoid the worst of churn pressure.

According to Marc Phillips, With Telstra being most able to buy market share and Dingo Blue not suffering the cost of supporting its own physical network, the results strongly imply that Vodafone is the next major telecommunications carrier that will be subjected to churn pressure.

The decision by Optus to roll in RSL Communications subscribers is questionable given RSL Communications had the lowest performance ranking of (9) among its most demanding customers base. By contrast, Virgin Mobile had the highest performance ranking of 1 and a middle-of-the-pack demanding-ness ranking of 5 giving the lowest churn exposure measure of 0.20

The report states highlights the typical customer who has undemanding requirements is unlikely to churn from one telecommunications carrier to another. The churners are most likely to be found among those who have more demanding expectations.

By cross-comparing the rankings of performance with the rankings of which telecommunications carriers have the most demanding customers, APT Strategies were able to rank telecommunications carriers in order of their implied susceptibility to churn.

About APT Strategies Pty. Ltd.
APT Strategies is one of Australias first online research firms established in 1994. APT Strategies provides clients with next generation online intelligence accelerator services whereby analysts engage in consultation, deliver best practice research reports and create business opportunities for clients within our network of over 10,000 businesses throughout the world. APT Strategies delivers innovative yet practical business analysis and planning to focus clients on profiting from current and future technology business models.