Gartner: Global Device Shipments Forecast to Return to Growth in 2018
Announcement posted by Gartner 06 Apr 2018
Mobile Phone Lifetimes to Increase Through 2020
After a decline of 3 percent in 2017, worldwide shipments of devices — PCs, tablets and mobile phones — are forecast to return to growth (+1.3 percent) in 2018 and will total 2.3 billion units, according to Gartner, Inc.
While the performance of shipments of devices fluctuate year over year, end-user device spending continues to rise and is forecast to increase 7 percent in 2018. "Driven by better specifications despite increasing costs ASPs for devices rose by 9.1 percent in 2017, and this trend will continue through this year, where we expect prices will increase by 5.6 percent," said Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner.
Despite PC prices increasing 4.6 percent in 2018, PC market unit demand, driven by business buying, is stabilizing through 2018 The traditional PC market will decline 3.9 percent in units in 2018, and is expected to decline a further 3.6 percent during 2019 (see Table 1).
Table 1
Worldwide Device Shipments by Device Type, 2016-2019 (Millions of Units)
Source: Gartner (April 2018)
Regional Market Recovering at Different Pace
Economic upheaval has affected the demand for devices variably across regions. Argentina, Brazil, Japan and Russia collectively lost nearly 25 percent of their device shipments between 2013 and 2017. "While the rate of recovery is varied regionally, most of the device types are now showing growth across these countries," said Mr. Atwal.
In countries suffering from significant economic turmoil the extended lifetimes across all device types tend to remain stagnant. "As a result, as markets recover, they will fail to reach the unit volumes previously seen and will only recover to around 70 percent of those shipments by 2022," added Mr. Atwal.
Worldwide Mobile Phone Lifetimes to Increase Through 2020
Gartner forecasts that global mobile phone shipments will increase 1.6 percent in 2018, with total mobile phone sales amounting to almost 1.9 billion units. In 2019, smartphone sales are on pace to continue to grow, at 5 percent year over year.
Overall, Gartner estimates that mobile phone lifetimes will increase from 2017 through 2020. "Premium phone lifetimes are expected to increase the most in the near-term, as users look to hold onto these devices due to a lack of new technology impact, prohibiting upgrades," said Anshul Gupta, research director at Gartner.
Mobile phone lifetimes will start to reduce again beyond 2020. "By 2020, artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities on smartphones will offer a more intelligent digital persona on the device. Machine learning, biometrics and user behavior will improve the ease of use, self-service and frictionless authentications. This will allow smartphones to be more trusted than other credentials, such as credit cards, passports, IDs or keys," said Mr. Gupta.
Future AI capabilities, including natural-language processing and machine perception (reading all sensors), will allow smartphones to learn, plan and solve problems for users. "This is not just about making the smartphone smarter, but augmenting users by reducing their cognitive load and enabling a ‘Digital Me’ that sits on the device," said Mr. Gupta.
More detailed analysis is available to Gartner clients in the report " Forecast: PCs, Ultramobiles and Mobile Phones, Worldwide, 2016-2022, 1Q18 Update."
Additional analysis on the outlook for the devices market and the overall IT market will be provided in the complimentary webinar “IT Spending Forecast Q1 2018: The Digital Storm – Will You Sink or Surf?” at 11 a.m. ET on April 10, 2018, and on demand. During the webinar, Gartner analysts will discuss the full IT spending forecast and details on which IT markets are poised to take advantage of the digital storm.
About Gartner
Gartner, Inc. (NYSE: IT), is the world's leading research and advisory company and a member of the S&P 500. We equip business leaders with indispensable insights, advice and tools to achieve their mission-critical priorities and build the successful organizations of tomorrow.
Our unmatched combination of expert-led, practitioner-sourced and data-driven research steers clients toward the right decisions on the issues that matter most. We're trusted as an objective resource and critical partner by more than 12,000 organizations in more than 100 countries—across all major functions, in every industry and enterprise size.
To learn more about how we help decision makers fuel the future of business, visit www.gartner.com.
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While the performance of shipments of devices fluctuate year over year, end-user device spending continues to rise and is forecast to increase 7 percent in 2018. "Driven by better specifications despite increasing costs ASPs for devices rose by 9.1 percent in 2017, and this trend will continue through this year, where we expect prices will increase by 5.6 percent," said Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner.
Despite PC prices increasing 4.6 percent in 2018, PC market unit demand, driven by business buying, is stabilizing through 2018 The traditional PC market will decline 3.9 percent in units in 2018, and is expected to decline a further 3.6 percent during 2019 (see Table 1).
Table 1
Worldwide Device Shipments by Device Type, 2016-2019 (Millions of Units)
| Device Type | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
| Traditional PCs (Desk-Based and Notebook) | 220 | 204 | 196 | 189 |
| Ultramobiles (Premium) | 50 | 58 | 67 | 77 |
| Total PC Market | 270 | 263 | 263 | 266 |
| Ultramobiles (Basic and Utility) | 169 | 158 | 159 | 159 |
| Computing Device Market | 439 | 420 | 422 | 425 |
| Mobile Phones | 1,893 | 1,841 | 1,870 | 1,892 |
| Total Device Market | 2,332 | 2,262 | 2,292 | 2,317 |
Regional Market Recovering at Different Pace
Economic upheaval has affected the demand for devices variably across regions. Argentina, Brazil, Japan and Russia collectively lost nearly 25 percent of their device shipments between 2013 and 2017. "While the rate of recovery is varied regionally, most of the device types are now showing growth across these countries," said Mr. Atwal.
In countries suffering from significant economic turmoil the extended lifetimes across all device types tend to remain stagnant. "As a result, as markets recover, they will fail to reach the unit volumes previously seen and will only recover to around 70 percent of those shipments by 2022," added Mr. Atwal.
Worldwide Mobile Phone Lifetimes to Increase Through 2020
Gartner forecasts that global mobile phone shipments will increase 1.6 percent in 2018, with total mobile phone sales amounting to almost 1.9 billion units. In 2019, smartphone sales are on pace to continue to grow, at 5 percent year over year.
Overall, Gartner estimates that mobile phone lifetimes will increase from 2017 through 2020. "Premium phone lifetimes are expected to increase the most in the near-term, as users look to hold onto these devices due to a lack of new technology impact, prohibiting upgrades," said Anshul Gupta, research director at Gartner.
Mobile phone lifetimes will start to reduce again beyond 2020. "By 2020, artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities on smartphones will offer a more intelligent digital persona on the device. Machine learning, biometrics and user behavior will improve the ease of use, self-service and frictionless authentications. This will allow smartphones to be more trusted than other credentials, such as credit cards, passports, IDs or keys," said Mr. Gupta.
Future AI capabilities, including natural-language processing and machine perception (reading all sensors), will allow smartphones to learn, plan and solve problems for users. "This is not just about making the smartphone smarter, but augmenting users by reducing their cognitive load and enabling a ‘Digital Me’ that sits on the device," said Mr. Gupta.
More detailed analysis is available to Gartner clients in the report " Forecast: PCs, Ultramobiles and Mobile Phones, Worldwide, 2016-2022, 1Q18 Update."
Additional analysis on the outlook for the devices market and the overall IT market will be provided in the complimentary webinar “IT Spending Forecast Q1 2018: The Digital Storm – Will You Sink or Surf?” at 11 a.m. ET on April 10, 2018, and on demand. During the webinar, Gartner analysts will discuss the full IT spending forecast and details on which IT markets are poised to take advantage of the digital storm.
About Gartner
Gartner, Inc. (NYSE: IT), is the world's leading research and advisory company and a member of the S&P 500. We equip business leaders with indispensable insights, advice and tools to achieve their mission-critical priorities and build the successful organizations of tomorrow.
Our unmatched combination of expert-led, practitioner-sourced and data-driven research steers clients toward the right decisions on the issues that matter most. We're trusted as an objective resource and critical partner by more than 12,000 organizations in more than 100 countries—across all major functions, in every industry and enterprise size.
To learn more about how we help decision makers fuel the future of business, visit www.gartner.com.
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